Updated: Sunday, 22nd September 2019 @ 6:10am

Toff times: David Cameron will lose next election over 'tough decisions', claims Manchester University study

Toff times: David Cameron will lose next election over 'tough decisions', claims Manchester University study

| By Stefan Mackley

David Cameron will ‘not be rewarded’ for his efforts as Prime Minister as a study from Manchester University claims his Conservative party will come second best in the next election.

The Polling Observatory blog was published by Dr Robert Ford from Manchester University and shows the Conservative party trail Labour by 5% in the findings.

The study, which was set up in collaboration with Southampton and Nottingham Universities, is a collection of ‘all the available polling evidence to produce an overall figure showing the popularity of the main political parties’.

The research, which began in 2010 when the current coalition government was formed, reveals that Labour are now the most popular party with 37% while the Conservatives trail on just over 32%.


RISE AND FALL: Graph showing the decrease in popularity for the Tories (Picture courtesy of Manchester University, with thanks)

Since the beginning of 2012, Labour have steadily increased their advantage over the Tories which will be of concern to Mr Cameron as a general election will be held next year.

The findings also come on the day Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, is set to give his fifth budget.

Dr Robert Ford believes that although this might be the ‘sunniest’ budget for many years, it does little to derive from the fact the Conservatives are lacking in popularity.

“Most economists are agreed that Britain is heading towards a robust recovery,” he said.

“GDP is steadily growing, unemployment falling; business and consumers are growing in confidence so today’s Budget statement will surely be the sunniest in George Osborne’s Treasury career.

“But the enduring problem for the Tories is they have seen little evidence the improving economic climate is helping the Government's political fortunes.

“As the months pass, they see no meaningful movement in the polls and instead, the evidence points to a voteless recovery in 2015.

“Going on current figures, British voters are unlikely to give the Government any electoral reward for its "tough decisions" heralded by the Tories and Liberal Democrats over the past few years.”

Much of the coalition’s lack of popularity stems from the struggling financial climate and problems the UK economy has faced since the financial crisis of 2008.

The introduction of the bedroom tax, pasty tax and Mr Cameron’s in-decision over whether to leave the EU have also played a part in the party’s unpopularity with many UK residents.

Another decision which may spark some controversy is the introduction of a new pound coin which is set to be in circulation by 2017 and is deemed ‘to be the most secure in the world’ with regards to counterfeiting.

Perhaps the biggest surprise from the study is that the Lib Dems are trailing UKIP in ratings, despite having formed the coalition government.

They have lost a huge proportion of support over the last two years and have just 7.2%, more than 5% behind UKIP.

The approaching European Parliament elections could see that gap increase as it will be a favourable environment for UKIP.

Picture courtesy of Valsts Kanceleja (unless stated), via Wikimedia Commons, with thanks